气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A meteorological-hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020
	A meteorological-hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy
	Ferretti R.; Lombardi A.; Tomassetti B.; Sangelantoni L.; Colaiuda V.; Mazzarella V.; Maiello I.; Verdecchia M.; Redaelli G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3135
结束页码	3156
卷号	24 期号:6
英文摘要	The weather forecasts for precipitation have considerably improved in recent years thanks to the increase of computational power. This allows for the use of both a higher spatial resolution and the parameterization schemes specifically developed for representing sub-grid scale physical processes at high resolution. However, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can impact the response of hydrological models. To the aim of improving the hydrological forecast and the characterization of related uncertainties, a regional-scale meteorological-hydrological ensemble is presented. The uncertainties in the precipitation forecast and how they propagate in the hydrological model are also investigated. A meteorological-hydrological offline coupled ensemble is built to forecast events in a complex-orography terrain where catchments of different sizes are present. The Best Discharge-based Drainage (BDD; both deterministic and probabilistic) index, is defined with the aim of forecasting hydrological-stress conditions and related uncertainty. In this context, the meteorological-hydrological ensemble forecast is implemented and tested for a severe hydrological event which occurred over Central Italy on 15 November 2017, when a flood hit the Abruzzo region with precipitation reaching 200mm(24 h)-1 and producing damages with a high impact on social and economic activities. The newly developed meteorological-hydrological ensemble is compared with a high-resolution deterministic forecast and with the observations (rain gauges and radar data) over the same area. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistical indicator shows how skilful the ensemble precipitation forecast is with respect to both rain-gauge- and radar-retrieved precipitation. Moreover, both the deterministic and probabilistic configurations of the BDD index are compared with the alert map issued by Civil Protection Department for the event showing a very good agreement. Finally, the meteorological- hydrological ensemble allows for an estimation of both the predictability of the event a few days in advance and the uncertainty of the flood. Although the modelling framework is implemented on the basins of the Abruzzo region, it is portable and applicable to other areas. © Author(s) 2020.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Boolean functions; Catchments; Economics; Floods; Radar; Rain; Rain gages; Runoff; Deterministic forecasts; Hydrological forecast; Hydrological modeling; Parameterization schemes; Precipitation estimation; Precipitation forecast; Receiver operating characteristics; Statistical indicators; Weather forecasting; early warning system; ensemble forecasting; hydrological modeling; hydrometeorology; parameterization; radar; raingauge; regional climate; spatial resolution; terrain; uncertainty analysis; Abruzzi; Apennines; Italy
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159371
作者单位	Ferretti, R., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy, Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Lombardi, A., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Tomassetti, B., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Sangelantoni, L., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Colaiuda, V., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Mazzarella, V., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Maiello, I., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy, Centro Funzionale d'Abruzzo, L'Aquila, Italy; Verdecchia, M., Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Redaelli, G., CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy, Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferretti R.,Lombardi A.,Tomassetti B.,et al. A meteorological-hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy[J],2020,24(6).
APA	Ferretti R..,Lombardi A..,Tomassetti B..,Sangelantoni L..,Colaiuda V..,...&Redaelli G..(2020).A meteorological-hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(6).
MLA	Ferretti R.,et al."A meteorological-hydrological regional ensemble forecast for an early-warning system over small Apennine catchments in Central Italy".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.6(2020).