气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-3311-2020
	Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
	Ayala A.I.; Moras S.; Pierson D.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3311
结束页码	3330
卷号	24 期号:6
英文摘要	This paper, as a part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken (Sweden). The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate water temperature when using ISIMIP2b bias-corrected climate model projections as input. These projections have a daily time step, while lake model simulations are often forced at hourly or shorter time steps. Therefore, it was necessary to first test the ability of GOTM to simulate Lake Erken water temperature using daily vs hourly meteorological forcing data. In order to do this, three data sets were used to force the model as follows: (1) hourly measured data, (2) daily average data derived from the first data set, and (3) synthetic hourly data created from the daily data set using generalised regression artificial neural network methods. This last data set is developed using a method that could also be applied to the daily time step ISIMIP scenarios to obtain hourly model input if needed. The lake model was shown to accurately simulate Lake Erken water temperature when forced with either daily or synthetic hourly data. Longterm simulations forced with daily or synthetic hourly meteorological data suggest that by the late 21st century the lake will undergo clear changes in thermal structure. For the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario, namely RCP2.6, surface water temperature was projected to increase by 1.79 and 1.36 °C when the lake model was forced at daily and hourly resolutions respectively, and for RCP6.0 these increases were projected to be 3.08 and 2.31 °C. Changes in lake stability were projected to increase, and the stratification duration was projected to be longer by 13 and 11 d under RCP2.6 scenario and 22 and 18 d under RCP6.0 scenario for daily and hourly resolutions. Model changes in thermal indices were very similar when using either the daily or synthetic hourly forcing, suggesting that the original ISIMIP climate model projections at a daily time step can be sufficient for the purpose of simulating lake water temperature. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Lakes; Temperature; Turbulence models; Artificial neural network methods; Lake water temperature; Long term simulation; Meteorological data; Meteorological forcing; One-dimensional hydrodynamic model; Simulation strategies; Surface water temperature; Climate models; climate modeling; data set; global warming; hydrodynamics; lake water; one-dimensional modeling; simulation; thermal structure; water temperature; Lake Erken; Stockholm [Sweden]; Sweden; Sweden
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159365
作者单位	Ayala, A.I., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden, Nonlinearity and Climate Group, Department of Applied Physics, University of Geneva, Geneva 4, 1211, Switzerland; Moras, S., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden; Pierson, D.C., Department of Ecology and Genetics, Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ayala A.I.,Moras S.,Pierson D.C.. Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy[J],2020,24(6).
APA	Ayala A.I.,Moras S.,&Pierson D.C..(2020).Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(6).
MLA	Ayala A.I.,et al."Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.6(2020).