气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020
	Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?
	Duethmann D.; Bloschl G.; Parajka J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	3493
结束页码	3511
卷号	24 期号:7
英文摘要	Several studies have shown that hydrological models do not perform well when applied to periods with climate conditions that differ from those during model calibration. This has important implications for the application of these models in climate change impact studies. The causes of the low transferability to changed climate conditions have, however, only been investigated in a few studies. Here we revisit a study in Austria that demonstrated the inability of a conceptual semi-distributed HBV-Type model to simulate the observed discharge response to increases in precipitation and air temperature. The aim of the paper is to shed light on the reasons for these model problems. We set up hypotheses for the possible causes of the mismatch between the observed and simulated changes in discharge and evaluate these using simulations with modifications of the model. In the baseline model, trends of simulated and observed discharge over 1978-2013 differ, on average over all 156 catchments, by 95±50 mm yr-1 per 35 years. Accounting for variations in vegetation dynamics, as derived from a satellite-based vegetation index, in the calculation of reference evaporation explains 36±9 mm yr-1 per 35 years of the differences between the trends in simulated and observed discharge. Inhomogeneities in the precipitation data, caused by a variable number of stations, explain 39±26 mm yr-1 per 35 years of this difference. Extending the calibration period from 5 to 25 years, including annually aggregated discharge data or snow cover data in the objective function, or estimating evaporation with the Penman-Monteith instead of the Blaney-Criddle approach has little influence on the simulated discharge trends (5 mm yr-1 per 35 years or less). The precipitation data problem highlights the importance of using precipitation data based on a stationary input station network when studying hydrologic changes. The model structure problem with respect to vegetation dynamics is likely relevant for a wide spectrum of regions in a transient climate and has important implications for climate change impact studies. © 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Climate models; Evaporation; Snow; Vegetation; Calibration periods; Climate change impact; Hydrological modeling; Hydrological models; Objective functions; Precipitation data; Simulated discharges; Vegetation dynamics; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; discharge; evaporation; hydrological modeling; prediction; snow cover; vegetation dynamics; Austria; Hepatitis B virus
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159355
作者单位	Duethmann, D., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Karlsplatz 13/223, Vienna, 1040, Austria, Igb Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany; Bloschl, G., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Karlsplatz 13/223, Vienna, 1040, Austria; Parajka, J., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Karlsplatz 13/223, Vienna, 1040, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duethmann D.,Bloschl G.,Parajka J.. Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?[J],2020,24(7).
APA	Duethmann D.,Bloschl G.,&Parajka J..(2020).Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(7).
MLA	Duethmann D.,et al."Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.7(2020).