气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: Uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models

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DOI	10.5194/hess-24-4135-2020
	Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: Uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models
	Kiczko A.; Västilä K.; Kozioł A.; Kubrak J.; Kubrak E.; Krukowski M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1027-5606
起始页码	4135
结束页码	4167
卷号	24 期号:8
英文摘要	Despite the development of advanced process-based methods for estimating the discharge capacity of vegetated river channels, most of the practical one-dimensional modeling is based on a relatively simple divided channel method (DCM) with the Manning flow resistance formula. This study is motivated by the need to improve the reliability of modeling in practical applications while acknowledging the limitations on the availability of data on vegetation properties and related parameters required by the process-based methods. We investigate whether the advanced methods can be applied to modeling of vegetated compound channels by identifying the missing characteristics as parameters through the formulation of an inverse problem. Six models of channel discharge capacity are compared in respect of their uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. The model with the lowest estimated uncertainty in explaining differences between computed and observed values is considered the most favorable. Calculations were performed for flume and field settings varying in floodplain vegetation submergence, density, and flexibility, and in hydraulic conditions. The output uncertainty, estimated on the basis of a Bayes approach, was analyzed for a varying number of observation points, demonstrating the significance of the parameter equifinality. The results showed that very reliable predictions with low uncertainties can be obtained for process-based methods with a large number of parameters. The equifinality affects the parameter identification but not the uncertainty of a model. The best performance for sparse, emergent, rigid vegetation was obtained with the Mertens method and for dense, flexible vegetation with a simplified two-layer method, while a generalized two-layer model with a description of the plant flexibility was the most universally applicable to different vegetative conditions. In many cases, the Manning-based DCM performed satisfactorily but could not be reliably extrapolated to higher flows. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Inverse problems; Parameter estimation; Vegetation; Discharge capacities; Divided channel methods; Hydraulic conditions; One-dimensional model; Plant flexibilities; Probabilistic approaches; Process-based models; Vegetation properties; Uncertainty analysis; discharge; estimation method; flow modeling; one-dimensional modeling; parameterization; prediction; river channel; uncertainty analysis; vegetation dynamics
来源期刊	Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159322
作者单位	Kiczko, A., Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Sggw, Warsaw, Poland; Västilä, K., Department of Built Environment, Aalto University School of Engineering, Espoo, Finland, Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Kozioł, A., Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Sggw, Warsaw, Poland; Kubrak, J., Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Sggw, Warsaw, Poland; Kubrak, E., Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Sggw, Warsaw, Poland; Krukowski, M., Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Sggw, Warsaw, Poland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kiczko A.,Västilä K.,Kozioł A.,et al. Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: Uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models[J],2020,24(8).
APA	Kiczko A.,Västilä K.,Kozioł A.,Kubrak J.,Kubrak E.,&Krukowski M..(2020).Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: Uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,24(8).
MLA	Kiczko A.,et al."Predicting discharge capacity of vegetated compound channels: Uncertainty and identifiability of one-dimensional process-based models".Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24.8(2020).