气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.0812355106
	Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''
	Smith J.B.; Schneider S.H.; Oppenheimer M.; Yohe G.W.; Hare W.; Mastrandrea M.D.; Patwardhan A.; Burton I.; Corfee-Morlot J.; Magadza C.H.D.; Füssel H.-M.; Pittock A.B.; Rahman A.; Suarez A.; Van Ypersele J.-P.
发表日期	2009
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	4133
结束页码	4137
卷号	106 期号:11
英文摘要	Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that ''would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.'' In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 ''reasons for concern'' (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the ''burning embers diagram.'' In presenting the ''embers'' in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ''reasons for concern.''.
英文关键词	Article 2; Climate change impacts; UNFCCC
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; atmosphere; climate change; environmental monitoring; environmental temperature; greenhouse gas; priority journal; temperature acclimatization; Air Pollution; Atmosphere; Climate; Dangerous Behavior; Forecasting; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; International Cooperation; United Nations
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159164
作者单位	Smith, J.B., Stratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059, United States; Schneider, S.H., Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Oppenheimer, M., Department of Geosciences, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Yohe, G.W., Department of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459, United States; Hare, W., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Mastrandrea, M.D., Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Patwardhan, A., Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India; Burton, I., University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1, Canada; Corfee-Morlot, J., Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France; Magadza, C.H....
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith J.B.,Schneider S.H.,Oppenheimer M.,et al. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''[J],2009,106(11).
APA	Smith J.B..,Schneider S.H..,Oppenheimer M..,Yohe G.W..,Hare W..,...&Van Ypersele J.-P..(2009).Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,106(11).
MLA	Smith J.B.,et al."Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106.11(2009).