气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1117683109
	Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques
	Hay C.C.; Morrow E.; Kopp R.E.; Mitrovica J.X.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	3692
结束页码	3699
卷号	110 期号:SUPPL. 1
英文摘要	A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observationsmay, in principle, be used to infer sources ofmeltwater flux.We outline a formalism, based on amodified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change.We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) andWestAntarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gapswhile also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ̃0.3 and ̃0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that ourmodified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world.
英文关键词	Climate; Kalman filter
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Antarctica; article; data extraction; feasibility study; Greenland; ice sheet; kalman smoother technique; priority journal; procedures; sea level rise
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159123
作者单位	Hay, C.C., Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada; Morrow, E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Kopp, R.E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States; Mitrovica, J.X., Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A7, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hay C.C.,Morrow E.,Kopp R.E.,et al. Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques[J],2013,110(SUPPL. 1).
APA	Hay C.C.,Morrow E.,Kopp R.E.,&Mitrovica J.X..(2013).Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110(SUPPL. 1).
MLA	Hay C.C.,et al."Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110.SUPPL. 1(2013).