气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1511186112
	Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level
	Strauss B.H.; Kulp S.; Levermann A.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	13508
结束页码	13513
卷号	112 期号:44
英文摘要	Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate impacts; Sea-level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon; sea water; Article; carbon footprint; city; climate change; greenhouse effect; home; ice sheet; priority journal; sea level; seashore; United States; West Antarctic ice sheet; Antarctica; city; climate; climate change; ecosystem; ecosystem monitoring; forecasting; geography; human; ice cover; metabolism; procedures; sea; theoretical model; trends; Antarctic Regions; Carbon; Cities; Climate; Climate Change; Ecological Parameter Monitoring; Ecosystem; Forecasting; Geography; Global Warming; Humans; Ice Cover; Models, Theoretical; Oceans and Seas; Seawater; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159088
作者单位	Strauss, B.H., Climate Central, Princeton, NJ 08542, United States; Kulp, S., Climate Central, Princeton, NJ 08542, United States; Levermann, A., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany, Physics Institute of Potsdam University, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Strauss B.H.,Kulp S.,Levermann A.. Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level[J],2015,112(44).
APA	Strauss B.H.,Kulp S.,&Levermann A..(2015).Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,112(44).
MLA	Strauss B.H.,et al."Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112.44(2015).