气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1413108112
	Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations
	Lagi M.; Bar-Yam Y.; Bertrand K.Z.; Bar-Yam Y.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	E6119
结束页码	E6128
卷号	112 期号:45
英文摘要	Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changesderegulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	alcohol; fertilizer; accuracy; alcohol production; behavioral economics; China; Conference Paper; crop; energy cost; food availability; food industry; grain; hunger; India; investment; maize; market; policy; priority journal; profit; quantitative analysis; trend study; United States; wheat
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159087
作者单位	Lagi, M., New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States; Bar-Yam, Y., New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States, New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States; Bertrand, K.Z., New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States; Bar-Yam, Y., New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States, New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, M.A. 02139, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lagi M.,Bar-Yam Y.,Bertrand K.Z.,et al. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations[J],2015,112(45).
APA	Lagi M.,Bar-Yam Y.,Bertrand K.Z.,&Bar-Yam Y..(2015).Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,112(45).
MLA	Lagi M.,et al."Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112.45(2015).