气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1517056113
	Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
	Kopp R.E.; Kemp A.C.; Bittermann K.; Horton B.P.; Donnelly J.P.; Gehrels W.R.; Hay C.C.; Mitrovica J.X.; Morrow E.D.; Rahmstorf S.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	E1434
结束页码	E1441
卷号	113 期号:11
英文摘要	We assess the relationship between temperature and global sealevel (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tidegauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ~0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P ≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P =0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change¡¯s Fifth Assessment Report.
英文关键词	Climate; Common Era; Late Holocene; Ocean; Sea level
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; carbon footprint; climate change; controlled study; glacier; global sea level; Gulf stream; ice cover; priority journal; process model; radiative forcing; sea level; sediment; temperature; tide
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159079
作者单位	Kopp, R.E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Kemp, A.C., Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02115, United States; Bittermann, K., Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Horton, B.P., Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Sea-Level Research, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Donnelly, J.P., Department of Geology and Geop...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kopp R.E.,Kemp A.C.,Bittermann K.,et al. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era[J],2016,113(11).
APA	Kopp R.E..,Kemp A.C..,Bittermann K..,Horton B.P..,Donnelly J.P..,...&Rahmstorf S..(2016).Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,113(11).
MLA	Kopp R.E.,et al."Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113.11(2016).