气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1604386113
	Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100
	Lin N.; Kopp R.E.; Horton B.P.; Donnelly J.P.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	12071
结束页码	12075
卷号	113 期号:43
英文摘要	Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hurricane Sandy; New York City; Sea level rise; Storm surge
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate; climate change; Conference Paper; flood tide; flooding; glacier; hurricane; ice sheet; priority journal; sea level; sea level rise
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159072
作者单位	Lin, N., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kopp, R.E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Horton, B.P., Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore, Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Donnelly, J.P., Coastal Systems Group, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin N.,Kopp R.E.,Horton B.P.,et al. Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100[J],2016,113(43).
APA	Lin N.,Kopp R.E.,Horton B.P.,&Donnelly J.P..(2016).Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,113(43).
MLA	Lin N.,et al."Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 113.43(2016).