气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1907461116
	Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges
	Nauels A.; Gütschow J.; Mengel M.; Meinshausen M.; Clark P.U.; Schleussner C.-F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	23487
结束页码	23492
卷号	116 期号:47
英文摘要	The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets) respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts. Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged National Determined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until 2030. Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment. We also find that 26 cm (12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the 1991–2030 (2016–2030) period. Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Emission pledges; Paris Agreement; Sea-level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; carbon footprint; China; European Union; France; India; Russian Federation; sea level rise; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159045
作者单位	Nauels, A., Climate Analytics, Berlin, 10969, Germany, Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia; Gütschow, J., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Mengel, M., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Meinshausen, M., Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Clark, P.U., College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, United States, School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster, Coleraine, BT52 1SA, United Kingdom; Schleussner, C.-F., Climate Analytics, Berlin, 10969, Germany, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany, Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human–Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nauels A.,Gütschow J.,Mengel M.,et al. Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges[J],2019,116(47).
APA	Nauels A.,Gütschow J.,Mengel M.,Meinshausen M.,Clark P.U.,&Schleussner C.-F..(2019).Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,116(47).
MLA	Nauels A.,et al."Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116.47(2019).