气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2004904117
	Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic
	Earn D.J.D.; Ma J.; Poinar H.; Dushoff J.; Bolker B.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	27703
结束页码	27711
卷号	117 期号:44
英文摘要	Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	COVID-19; Epidemic growth rate; London; Plague; Reproduction number
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; England; history; human; pandemic; plague; population density; rat; Animals; History, 15th Century; History, 16th Century; History, 17th Century; History, Medieval; Humans; London; Pandemics; Plague; Population Density; Rats
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/159023
作者单位	Earn, D.J.D., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; Ma, J., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada; Poinar, H., Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, McMaster Ancient DNA Centre, Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada; Dushoff, J., Department of Mathematics & Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Department of Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada, Michael G. deGroote Institute for Infectious Disea...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Earn D.J.D.,Ma J.,Poinar H.,et al. Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic[J],2020,117(44).
APA	Earn D.J.D.,Ma J.,Poinar H.,Dushoff J.,&Bolker B.M..(2020).Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(44).
MLA	Earn D.J.D.,et al."Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.44(2020).