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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1919049117
	A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security
	Jagermeyr J.; Robock A.; Elliott J.; Muller C.; Xia L.; Khabarov N.; Folberth C.; Schmid E.; Liu W.; Zabel F.; Rabin S.S.; Puma M.J.; Heslin A.; Franke J.; Foster I.; Asseng S.; Bardeen C.G.; Toon O.B.; Rosenzweig C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	7071
结束页码	7081
卷号	117 期号:13
英文摘要	A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Cold temperature yield response; Food system shock; Global gridded crop model intercomparison (GGCMI); India-Pakistan conflict; Multiple breadbasket failure
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; atomic warfare; China; climate; controlled study; crop; drought; Europe; food availability; food insecurity; food security; health impact assessment; maize; precipitation; priority journal; rice; simulation; solar radiation; soybean; temperature measurement; United States; volcano; wheat; biological model; catering service; climate; food grain; Climate; Edible Grain; Food Supply; Models, Biological; Nuclear Warfare; Soybeans
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158962
作者单位	Jagermeyr, J., Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY 10025, United States, Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Robock, A., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Elliott, J., Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States; Muller, C., Climate Resilience, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Xia, L., Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Khabarov, N., Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Folberth, C., Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jagermeyr J.,Robock A.,Elliott J.,et al. A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security[J],2020,117(13).
APA	Jagermeyr J..,Robock A..,Elliott J..,Muller C..,Xia L..,...&Rosenzweig C..(2020).A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(13).
MLA	Jagermeyr J.,et al."A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.13(2020).