气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.0705414105
	Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
	Lenton T.M.; Held H.; Kriegler E.; Hall J.W.; Lucht W.; Rahmstorf S.; Schellnhuber H.J.
发表日期	2008
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	1786
结束页码	1793
卷号	105 期号:6
英文摘要	The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate policy; Earth system; Large-scale impacts; Tipping points
语种	英语
scopus关键词	arctic climate; astronomy; climate change; El Nino; greenhouse effect; ice sheet; priority journal; review; seasonal rain forest; thermohaline circulation
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158954
作者单位	Lenton, T.M., School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom; Held, H., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Kriegler, E., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, United States; Hall, J.W., School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; Lucht, W., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Rahmstorf, S., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Schellnhuber, H.J., Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre for Clima...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lenton T.M.,Held H.,Kriegler E.,et al. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system[J],2008,105(6).
APA	Lenton T.M..,Held H..,Kriegler E..,Hall J.W..,Lucht W..,...&Schellnhuber H.J..(2008).Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,105(6).
MLA	Lenton T.M.,et al."Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105.6(2008).