气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1017313108
	Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade
	Price S.F.; Payne A.J.; Howat I.M.; Smith B.E.
发表日期	2011
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	8978
结束页码	8983
卷号	108 期号:22
英文摘要	We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, >75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.
英文关键词	Climate change; Ice sheet modeling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate change; deglaciation; dynamics; glacial mass balance; glacier; Greenland; ice sheet; measurement; model; priority journal; sea level rise; Climate Change; Global Warming; Greenland; Humans; Ice; Ice Cover; Models, Statistical; Models, Theoretical; Seasons; Time Factors; Water Movements
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158942
作者单位	Price, S.F., Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, T3 MS B216, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Payne, A.J., Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol, University Road, Clifton, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Howat, I.M., School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, 125 South Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210, United States; Smith, B.E., Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Box 35560, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Price S.F.,Payne A.J.,Howat I.M.,et al. Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade[J],2011,108(22).
APA	Price S.F.,Payne A.J.,Howat I.M.,&Smith B.E..(2011).Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,108(22).
MLA	Price S.F.,et al."Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108.22(2011).