气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1214457110
	Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change
	Little C.M.; Urban N.M.; Oppenheimer M.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	3264
结束页码	3269
卷号	110 期号:9
英文摘要	Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non- B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.
英文关键词	Climate change; Decision-making; Glaciology; Risk management
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Antarctica; article; conceptual framework; correlation analysis; glacial mass balance; growth rate; ice sheet; priority journal; probability; river basin; sea level; sea level rise; spatial analysis; statistical parameters; Antarctic Regions; Climate Change; Ice Cover; Oceans and Seas; Probability
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158932
作者单位	Little, C.M., Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Urban, N.M., Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Computational Physics and Methods (CCS-2), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; Oppenheimer, M., Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Little C.M.,Urban N.M.,Oppenheimer M.. Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change[J],2013,110(9).
APA	Little C.M.,Urban N.M.,&Oppenheimer M..(2013).Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110(9).
MLA	Little C.M.,et al."Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110.9(2013).