气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1219716110
	Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic
	Liu J.; Song M.; Horton R.M.; Hu Y.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	12571
结束页码	12576
卷号	110 期号:31
英文摘要	This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ~1.7 million km 2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km2) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ~1.7 million km2 in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent. © PNAS 2013.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	arctic climate; article; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5; model; priority journal; sea ice; simulation; Arctic Regions; Global Warming; Models, Theoretical; Seasons
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158929
作者单位	Liu, J., Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, United States; Song, M., State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Horton, R.M., Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, United States; Hu, Y., Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu J.,Song M.,Horton R.M.,et al. Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic[J],2013,110(31).
APA	Liu J.,Song M.,Horton R.M.,&Hu Y..(2013).Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,110(31).
MLA	Liu J.,et al."Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free arctic".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110.31(2013).