气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.1619358114
	Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
	Defrance D.; Ramstein G.; Charbit S.; Vrac M.; Famien A.M.; Sultan B.; Swingedouw D.; Dumas C.; Gemenne F.; Alvarez-Solas J.; Vanderlinden J.-P.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	6533
结束页码	6538
卷号	114 期号:25
英文摘要	The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.
英文关键词	Climate change; Ice sheet melting; Impact; Sahel; Vulnerability
语种	英语
scopus关键词	fresh water; rain; sea water; Article; climate change; demography; Greenland; human; ice sheet; melting point; migration; population density; population migration; precipitation; priority journal; rural population; Sahel; surface area; vulnerable population; climate change; computer simulation; freezing; greenhouse effect; ice cover; statistics and numerical data; theoretical model; time factor; water flow; Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Freezing; Fresh Water; Global Warming; Greenland; Humans; Ice Cover; Models, Theoretical; Seawater; Time Factors; Water Movements
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158892
作者单位	Defrance, D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, 75005, France; Ramstein, G., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, 91141, France; Charbit, S., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives - CNRS, Université de Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Uni...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Defrance D.,Ramstein G.,Charbit S.,et al. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability[J],2017,114(25).
APA	Defrance D..,Ramstein G..,Charbit S..,Vrac M..,Famien A.M..,...&Vanderlinden J.-P..(2017).Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,114(25).
MLA	Defrance D.,et al."Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 114.25(2017).