气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1719903115
	Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change
	McGuire A.D.; Lawrence D.M.; Koven C.; Clein J.S.; Burke E.; Chen G.; Jafarov E.; MacDougall A.H.; Marchenko S.; Nicolsky D.; Peng S.; Rinke A.; Ciais P.; Gouttevin I.; Hayes D.J.; Ji D.; Krinner G.; Moore J.C.; Romanovsky V.; Schädel C.; Schaefer K.; Schuur E.A.G.; Zhuang Q.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	3882
结束页码	3887
卷号	115 期号:15
英文摘要	We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Carbon dynamics; Climate system; Permafrost carbon-climate feedback; Permafrost dynamics; Soil carbon
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon; air analysis; air temperature; Article; atmospheric radioactivity; carbon dioxide evolution; carbon dynamics; climate change; concentration (parameters); decomposition; ecosystem monitoring; environmental impact assessment; geographic distribution; human; permafrost; priority journal; sensitivity analysis; soil analysis; vegetation
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158886
作者单位	McGuire, A.D., US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Lawrence, D.M., Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States; Koven, C., Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; Clein, J.S., Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Burke, E., Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Chen, G., Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, United States, International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, United States; Jafarov, E., Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States; MacDougall, A.H., Department of Earth Sciences, St. Francis Xavier Uni...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	McGuire A.D.,Lawrence D.M.,Koven C.,et al. Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change[J],2018,115(15).
APA	McGuire A.D..,Lawrence D.M..,Koven C..,Clein J.S..,Burke E..,...&Zhuang Q..(2018).Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,115(15).
MLA	McGuire A.D.,et al."Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.15(2018).