气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1807912115
	Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change
	Krinner G.; Flanner M.G.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	9462
结束页码	9466
卷号	115 期号:38
英文摘要	Because all climate models exhibit biases, their use for assessing future climate change requires implicitly assuming or explicitly postulating that the biases are stationary or vary predictably. This hypothesis, however, has not been, and cannot be, tested directly. This work shows that under very large climate change the bias patterns of key climate variables exhibit a striking degree of stationarity. Using only correlation with a model’s preindustrial bias pattern, a model’s 4xCO 2 bias pattern is objectively and correctly identified among a large model ensemble in almost all cases. This outcome would be exceedingly improbable if bias patterns were independent of climate state. A similar result is also found for bias patterns in two historical periods. This provides compelling and heretofore missing justification for using such models to quantify climate perturbation patterns and for selecting well-performing models for regional downscaling. Furthermore, it opens the way to extending bias corrections to perturbed states, substantially broadening the range of justified applications of climate models. © 2018 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate modeling; Model biases
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; climate change
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158878
作者单位	Krinner, G., Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, 38000, France, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; Flanner, M.G., Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krinner G.,Flanner M.G.. Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change[J],2018,115(38).
APA	Krinner G.,&Flanner M.G..(2018).Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,115(38).
MLA	Krinner G.,et al."Striking stationarity of large-scale climate model bias patterns under strong climate change".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115.38(2018).