气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1817205116
	Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
	Bamber J.L.; Oppenheimer M.; Kopp R.E.; Aspinall W.P.; Cooke R.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	11195
结束页码	11200
卷号	166 期号:23
英文摘要	Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Antarctica; Climate predictions; Greenland; Ice sheets; Sea-level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Antarctica; article; climate; decision making; France; glacier; Greenland; ice sheet; intermethod comparison; prediction; sea level rise; uncertainty
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158871
作者单位	Bamber, J.L., School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom; Oppenheimer, M., Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Kopp, R.E., Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08854, United States, Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Aspinall, W.P., School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom, Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury, SP3 6HF, United Kingdom; Cooke, R.M., Land, Water, and Nature Resources for the Future, Washington, DC 20036, United States, Department of Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2600 GA, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bamber J.L.,Oppenheimer M.,Kopp R.E.,et al. Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment[J],2019,166(23).
APA	Bamber J.L.,Oppenheimer M.,Kopp R.E.,Aspinall W.P.,&Cooke R.M..(2019).Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,166(23).
MLA	Bamber J.L.,et al."Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 166.23(2019).