气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.1904822116
	Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise
	Robel A.A.; Seroussi H.; Roe G.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	14887
结束页码	14892
卷号	116 期号:30
英文摘要	Sea-level rise may accelerate significantly if marine ice sheets become unstable. If such instability occurs, there would be considerable uncertainty in future sea-level rise projections due to imperfectly modeled ice sheet processes and unpredictable climate variability. In this study, we use mathematical and computational approaches to identify the ice sheet processes that drive uncertainty in sea-level projections. Using stochastic perturbation theory from statistical physics as a tool, we show mathematically that the marine ice sheet instability greatly amplifies and skews uncertainty in sea-level projections with worst-case scenarios of rapid sea-level rise being more likely than best-case scenarios of slower sea-level rise. We also perform large ensemble simulations with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model of Thwaites Glacier, a marine-terminating glacier in West Antarctica that is thought to be unstable. These ensemble simulations indicate that the uncertainty solely related to internal climate variability can be a large fraction of the total ice loss expected from Thwaites Glacier. We conclude that internal climate variability alone can be responsible for significant uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise and that large ensembles are a necessary tool for quantifying the upper bounds of this uncertainty. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate variability; Ice sheet; Sea level; Uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Antarctica; article; climate change; glacier; ice sheet; physics; sea ice; sea level rise; simulation; stochastic model; uncertainty
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158862
作者单位	Robel, A.A., School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30318, United States; Seroussi, H., Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States; Roe, G.H., Earth and Space Sciences Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98915, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robel A.A.,Seroussi H.,Roe G.H.. Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise[J],2019,116(30).
APA	Robel A.A.,Seroussi H.,&Roe G.H..(2019).Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,116(30).
MLA	Robel A.A.,et al."Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116.30(2019).