气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2008256117
	Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
	Scherrer K.J.N.; Harrison C.S.; Heneghan R.F.; Galbraith E.; Bardeen C.G.; Coupe J.; Jägermeyr J.; Lovenduski N.S.; Luna A.; Robock A.; Stevens J.; Stevenson S.; Toon O.B.; Xia L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0027-8424
起始页码	29748
结束页码	29758
卷号	117 期号:47
英文摘要	Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management. © 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Abrupt climate change; Fisheries management; Food from the ocean; Global food security; Nuclear winter
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal protein; protein; agricultural parameters; Article; atomic warfare; biomass; climate change; environmental impact; fishery; food shortage; greenhouse effect; nutritional parameters; priority journal; simulation; socioeconomics; war exposure; water temperature
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158838
作者单位	Scherrer, K.J.N., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain; Harrison, C.S., School of Earth, Environmental and Marine Science, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Port Isabel, TX 78578, United States, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States; Heneghan, R.F., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain; Galbraith, E., Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0E8, Canada; Bardeen, C.G., Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, United States, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303, United States; Coupe, J., Department of ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Scherrer K.J.N.,Harrison C.S.,Heneghan R.F.,et al. Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war[J],2020,117(47).
APA	Scherrer K.J.N..,Harrison C.S..,Heneghan R.F..,Galbraith E..,Bardeen C.G..,...&Xia L..(2020).Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,117(47).
MLA	Scherrer K.J.N.,et al."Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117.47(2020).