气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of temperature changes in Western China

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DOI	10.1002/joc.5206
	Attribution of temperature changes in Western China
	Wang, Yujie; Sun, Ying; Hu, Ting; Qin, Dahe; Song, Lianchun
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0899-8418
起始页码	742
结束页码	750
卷号	38 期号:2
英文摘要	Western China (WC) is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the mid-latitudes. Understanding the causes of the large temperature increases experienced in this region is of great importance because both the fragile ecological environment and the human societies in WC are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis on the annual mean temperature using an optimal fingerprinting method by comparing observations based on homogenized station data with simulations conducted using the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that the increase in the mean temperature can be attributed to human activities. The effect of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected in single-signal detection analyses when the response to the ANT forcing is compared directly with the observations. This effect can also be separated from the influence of the natural external forcing in two-signal analyses. The warming attributable to the ANT forcing explains most of the observed regional warming. The models appear to have underestimated the observed warming, suggesting that the projected future temperature increases based on raw output from the model simulations may have also been underestimated.
英文关键词	detection and attribution; mean temperature changes; Western China
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158527
作者单位	Sun, Y (corresponding author), China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,et al. Attribution of temperature changes in Western China[J],2018,38(2).
APA	Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,Qin, Dahe,&Song, Lianchun.(2018).Attribution of temperature changes in Western China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2).
MLA	Wang, Yujie,et al."Attribution of temperature changes in Western China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018).