气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using climate elasticity method and general circulation model (GCM) in the buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan

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DOI	10.3390/su12124968
	Assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using climate elasticity method and general circulation model (GCM) in the buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan
	Rakhimova M.; Liu T.; Bissenbayeva S.; Mukanov Y.; Gafforov K.S.; Bekpergenova Z.; Gulakhmadov A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	489697
卷号	12 期号:12
英文摘要	The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036-2065 and 2071-2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows-70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 ffiC/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection. © 2020 by the authors.
英文关键词	Buqtyrma River Basin; Climate change; Global circulation model; Human activity; Runoff; Trend analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Sustainability (Switzerland)
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/158441
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Key Laboratory of GIS and RS Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, 830011, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, China; Faculty of Natural Sciences, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan, 010008, Kazakhstan; Regional State Enterprise Kazhydromet, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Bioremediation, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 83011, China; Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, 734064, Tajikistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rakhimova M.,Liu T.,Bissenbayeva S.,et al. Assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using climate elasticity method and general circulation model (GCM) in the buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan[J],2020,12(12).
APA	Rakhimova M..,Liu T..,Bissenbayeva S..,Mukanov Y..,Gafforov K.S..,...&Gulakhmadov A..(2020).Assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using climate elasticity method and general circulation model (GCM) in the buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan.,12(12).
MLA	Rakhimova M.,et al."Assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using climate elasticity method and general circulation model (GCM) in the buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan".12.12(2020).