气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2018MS001506
	Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
	Li J.; Bao Q.; Liu Y.; Wu G.; Wang L.; He B.; Wang X.; Li J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	1117
结束页码	1136
卷号	11 期号:4
英文摘要	We evaluate the ability of the latest generation atmospheric general circulation model from State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (namely, FAMIL2) in simulating some key characteristics (genesis location, track, number, and intensity) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in terms of their climatology and seasonal to interannual variability. A standard 1° × 1° atmospheric model intercomparison project experiment is carried out for the period 1979–2002, and the last 20 years of outputs are used for analysis. The same period from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) is used as the observation for comparison purposes. The evaluations focus on TC activity at the global scale as well as in the three key regions of the northern Indian Ocean (NIO), western Pacific (WP) and northern Atlantic (NA). With respect to the simulated TC climatology, FAMIL2 shows notable ability in correctly reproducing the main characteristics of the genesis locations, tracks, and numbers of TC, particularly over the key regions of TC activity in the Northern Hemisphere; whereas, it underestimates the intensities of TC, as is the case with many state-of-the-art climate models operating at a medium resolution. On seasonal-to-interannual time scales, meanwhile, FAMIL2 successfully reproduces the seasonal cycles of TC numbers over the NIO and WP regions, the former being characterized by double TC peaks (in May and October) and the latter by a maximum peak season in August. However, the model only captures these features approximately. For the simulated interannual variability of TC activity, the correlation coefficients of 20-year TC numbers between FAMIL2 and IBTrACS are 0.22, 0.51 (95% confidence interval), and 0.49 (95% confidence interval) for the NIO, WP, and NA, respectively. We also examine the possible reasons behind the performance of FAMIL2 by investigating its subseasonal signs related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves. The TC genesis potential index is employed to investigate the possible impacts of the large-scale dynamic fields on the simulation of TC activity. Finally, the biases of simulated TC activity, as well as possible solutions for these biases, are discussed with respect to the horizontal resolution of the model. A TC forecasting case study is introduced as a first step in applying FAMIL2 to a TC forecasting system. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	AMIP; climatology; FAMIL2; possible reason; seasonal-to-interannual variability; tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Climatology; Geophysics; Horizontal wells; Storms; Tropics; AMIP; FAMIL2; Interannual variability; possible reason; Tropical cyclone; Hurricanes; annual variation; atmospheric general circulation model; climate modeling; climatology; equatorial wave; Madden-Julian oscillation; Northern Hemisphere; seasonal variation; simulation; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156923
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li J.,Bao Q.,Liu Y.,et al. Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics[J],2019,11(4).
APA	Li J..,Bao Q..,Liu Y..,Wu G..,Wang L..,...&Li J..(2019).Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(4).
MLA	Li J.,et al."Evaluation of FAMIL2 in Simulating the Climatology and Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.4(2019).