气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multiple-Instance Superparameterization: 1. Concept, and Predictability of Precipitation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001610
	Multiple-Instance Superparameterization: 1. Concept, and Predictability of Precipitation
	Jones T.R.; Randall D.A.; Branson M.D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	3497
结束页码	3520
卷号	11 期号:11
英文摘要	We have investigated the predictability of precipitation using a new configuration of the superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM). The new configuration, called the multiple-instance SP-CAM, or MP-CAM, uses the average heating and drying rates from 10 independent two-dimensional cloud-permitting models (CPMs) in each grid column of the global model, instead of a single CPM. The 10 CPMs start from slightly different initial conditions and simulate alternative realizations of the convective cloud systems. By analyzing the ensemble of possible realizations, we can study the predictability of the cloud systems and identify the weather regimes and physical mechanisms associated with chaotic convection. We explore alternative methods for quantifying the predictability of precipitation. Our results show that unpredictable precipitation occurs when the simulated atmospheric state is close to critical points as defined by Peters and Neelin (2006, https://doi.org/10.1038/nphys314). The predictability of precipitation is also influenced by the convective available potential energy and the degree of mesoscale organization. It is strongly controlled by the large-scale circulation. A companion paper compares the global atmospheric circulations simulated by SP-CAM and MP-CAM. ©2019. The Authors.
英文关键词	convection; critical phenomena; precipitation; predictability; superparameterization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth sciences; Heat convection; Precipitation (chemical); Atmospheric circulation; Community atmosphere model; Convective available potential energies; Critical phenomenon; Large-scale circulation; Multiple instances; predictability; Superparameterization; Potential energy; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric convection; atmospheric modeling; cloud; convective cloud; ensemble forecasting; parameterization; precipitation (climatology); prediction; two-dimensional modeling
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156830
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jones T.R.,Randall D.A.,Branson M.D.. Multiple-Instance Superparameterization: 1. Concept, and Predictability of Precipitation[J],2019,11(11).
APA	Jones T.R.,Randall D.A.,&Branson M.D..(2019).Multiple-Instance Superparameterization: 1. Concept, and Predictability of Precipitation.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(11).
MLA	Jones T.R.,et al."Multiple-Instance Superparameterization: 1. Concept, and Predictability of Precipitation".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.11(2019).