气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001825
	Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic
	Kimmritz M.; Counillon F.; Smedsrud L.H.; Bethke I.; Keenlyside N.; Ogawa F.; Wang Y.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19422466
起始页码	4147
结束页码	4166
卷号	11 期号:12
英文摘要	There is a growing demand for skillful prediction systems in the Arctic. Using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model that combines the fully coupled Norwegian Earth System Model and the Ensemble Kalman filter, we present a system that performs both, weakly coupled data assimilation (wCDA) when assimilating ocean hydrography (by updating the ocean alone) and strongly coupled data assimilation when assimilating sea ice concentration (SIC) (by jointly updating the sea ice and ocean). We assess the seasonal prediction skill of this version of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, the first climate prediction system using strongly coupled data assimilation, by performing retrospective predictions (hindcasts) for the period 1985 to 2010. To better understand the origins of the prediction skill of Arctic sea ice, we compare this version with a version that solely performs wCDA of ocean hydrography. The reanalysis that assimilates just ocean data exhibits skillful hydrography in the upper Arctic Ocean and features an improved sea ice state, such as improved summer SIC in the Barents Sea, or reduced biases in sea ice thickness. Skillful prediction of SIE up to 10–12 lead months are only found during winter in regions of a relatively deep ocean mixed layer outside the Arctic basin. Additional DA of SIC data notably further corrects the initial seaice state, confirming the applicability of the results of Kimmritz et al. (2018) in a historical setting. The resulting prediction skill of SIE is widely enhanced compared to predictions initialized through wCDA of only ocean data. Particularly high skill is found for July-initialized autumn SIE predictions. ©2019. The Authors.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Climatology; Earth (planet); Hydrology; Navigation; Oceanography; Sea ice; Climate prediction; Climate prediction model; Data assimilation; Earth system model; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Prediction systems; Sea ice concentration; Seasonal prediction; Forecasting; climate prediction; hindcasting; hydrography; ice thickness; ice-ocean interaction; Kalman filter; mixed layer; sea ice; seasonal variation; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea; Norway
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156803
作者单位	Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kimmritz M.,Counillon F.,Smedsrud L.H.,et al. Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic[J],2019,11(12).
APA	Kimmritz M..,Counillon F..,Smedsrud L.H..,Bethke I..,Keenlyside N..,...&Wang Y..(2019).Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11(12).
MLA	Kimmritz M.,et al."Impact of Ocean and Sea Ice Initialisation On Seasonal Prediction Skill in the Arctic".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11.12(2019).