气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tailoring WRF and Noah-MP to Improve Process Representation of Sierra Nevada Runoff: Diagnostic Evaluation and Applications

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001832
	Tailoring WRF and Noah-MP to Improve Process Representation of Sierra Nevada Runoff: Diagnostic Evaluation and Applications
	Holtzman N.M.; Pavelsky T.M.; Cohen J.S.; Wrzesien M.L.; Herman J.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19422466
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	Watersheds at the western margin of the Sierra Nevada mountains in California are regulated by large dams providing crucial water supply, flood control, and electricity generation. Runoff in these basins is snowmelt dominated and therefore vulnerable to alteration due to climate change. Regional climate models coupled to land surface models can be used to study the hydrologic impacts of climate change, but there is little evidence that they accurately simulate watershed-scale runoff in complex terrain. This study evaluates capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, coupled to the Noah-multiparameterization (MP) land surface model, to simulate runoff into nine Sierra Nevada reservoirs over the period 2007–2017. Default parameterizations lead to substantial inaccuracy in results, including median bias of 61%. Errors can be traced to process representations; specifically, we modify the representation of snowflake formation in the Thompson microphysics scheme and subsurface runoff generation in the Noah-MP land surface model, including a correction representing effects of groundwater storage. The resulting parameterization improves Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to above 0.7 across all basins and reduces median bias to 21%. To assess capabilities of the modified WRF/Noah-MP system in supporting analysis of human-altered hydrology, we use its streamflow projections to force a reservoir operations model, results of which maintain high accuracy in predicting reservoir storage and releases (mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.41). This diagnostic analysis indicates that coupled climate and land surface models can be used to study climate change effects on reservoir systems in mountain regions via dynamical downscaling, when adequate physical parameterizations are used. © 2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	California; regional climate models; runoff; Sierra Nevada; snowpack
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Efficiency; Flood control; Groundwater; Landforms; Parameterization; Reservoirs (water); Runoff; Surface measurement; Water conservation; Water supply; Weather forecasting; Dynamical downscaling; Electricity generation; Land surface modeling; Land surface models; Process representation; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate models; Weather research and forecasting; Climate models; accuracy assessment; anthropogenic effect; climate change; electricity generation; flood control; groundwater flow; hydrological regime; reservoir; runoff; snowmelt; streamflow; water supply; weather forecasting; California; Sierra Nevada [California]; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156749
作者单位	Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States; Now at Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Holtzman N.M.,Pavelsky T.M.,Cohen J.S.,et al. Tailoring WRF and Noah-MP to Improve Process Representation of Sierra Nevada Runoff: Diagnostic Evaluation and Applications[J],2020,12(3).
APA	Holtzman N.M.,Pavelsky T.M.,Cohen J.S.,Wrzesien M.L.,&Herman J.D..(2020).Tailoring WRF and Noah-MP to Improve Process Representation of Sierra Nevada Runoff: Diagnostic Evaluation and Applications.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,12(3).
MLA	Holtzman N.M.,et al."Tailoring WRF and Noah-MP to Improve Process Representation of Sierra Nevada Runoff: Diagnostic Evaluation and Applications".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12.3(2020).