气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity

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DOI	10.1029/2019MS001986
	Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity
	Williams K.D.; Hewitt A.J.; Bodas-Salcedo A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19422466
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	The configuration of the Met Office Unified Model being submitted to CMIP6 has a high climate sensitivity. Previous studies have suggested that the impact of model changes on initial tendencies in numerical weather prediction (NWP) should be used to guide their suitability for inclusion in climate models. In this study we assess, using NWP experiments, the atmospheric model changes which lead to the increased climate sensitivity in the CMIP6 configuration, namely, the replacement of the aerosol scheme with GLOMAP-mode and the introduction of a scheme for representing the turbulent production of liquid water within mixed-phase cloud. Overall, the changes included in this latest configuration were found to improve the initial tendencies of the model state variables over the first 6 hr of the forecast, this timescale being before significant dynamical feedbacks are likely to occur. The reduced model drift through the forecast appears to be the result of increased cloud liquid water, leading to enhanced radiative cooling from cloud top and contributing to a stronger shortwave cloud radiative effect. These changes improve the 5-day forecast in traditional metrics used for numerical weather prediction. This study was conducted after the model was frozen and the climate sensitivity of the model determined; hence, it provides an independent test of the model changes contributing to the higher climate sensitivity. The results, along with the large body process-orientated evaluation conducted during the model development process, provide reassurance that these changes are improving the physical processes simulated by the model. ©2020. The Authors.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Radiative Cooling; Weather forecasting; Atmospheric model; Climate sensitivity; Cloud liquid waters; Cloud radiative effects; Mixed-phase cloud; Model development; Numerical weather prediction; Process-orientated; Climate models; aerosol; climate feedback; climate prediction; CMIP; cooling; experimental study; radiative forcing; sensitivity analysis; turbulence; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156732
作者单位	Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Williams K.D.,Hewitt A.J.,Bodas-Salcedo A.. Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity[J],2020,12(4).
APA	Williams K.D.,Hewitt A.J.,&Bodas-Salcedo A..(2020).Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,12(4).
MLA	Williams K.D.,et al."Use of Short-Range Forecasts to Evaluate Fast Physics Processes Relevant for Climate Sensitivity".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12.4(2020).