气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Application of the Cyclone Phase Space to Extratropical Transition in a Global Climate Model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001878
	Application of the Cyclone Phase Space to Extratropical Transition in a Global Climate Model
	Bieli M.; Sobel A.H.; Camargo S.J.; Murakami H.; Vecchi G.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19422466
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with Flux Adjustment (FLOR-FA). The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to diagnose ET. A simulation of the recent historical climate is analyzed and compared with data from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and then a simulation of late 21st century climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 is compared to the historical simulation. When CPS is applied to the FLOR-FA output in the historical simulation, the results diverge from those obtained from JRA-55 by having an unrealistic number of ET cases at low latitudes, due to the presence of strong local maxima in the upper-level geopotential. These features mislead CPS into detecting a cold core where one is not present. The misdiagnosis is largely corrected by replacing the maxima required by CPS with the 95th percentile values, smoothing the CPS trajectories in time, or both. Other climate models may contain grid-scale structures akin to those in FLOR-FA and, when used for CPS analysis, require solutions such as those discussed here. Comparisons of ET in the projected future climate with the historical climate show a number of changes that are robust to the details of the ET diagnosis, though few are statistically significant according to standard tests. Among them are an increase in the ET fraction and a reduction in the mean latitude at which ET occurs in the western North Pacific. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	climate model; cyclone phase space; extratropical transition; tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Phase space methods; Storms; Cyclone phase spaces; Extratropical transition; Flux adjustments; Global climate model; Global statistics; Historical simulation; Tropical cyclone; Western North Pacific; Climate models; climate modeling; cyclone; extratropical environment; flux measurement; global climate; simulation; smoothing; tropical cyclone; twenty first century; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156725
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bieli M.,Sobel A.H.,Camargo S.J.,et al. Application of the Cyclone Phase Space to Extratropical Transition in a Global Climate Model[J],2020,12(4).
APA	Bieli M.,Sobel A.H.,Camargo S.J.,Murakami H.,&Vecchi G.A..(2020).Application of the Cyclone Phase Space to Extratropical Transition in a Global Climate Model.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,12(4).
MLA	Bieli M.,et al."Application of the Cyclone Phase Space to Extratropical Transition in a Global Climate Model".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12.4(2020).