气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty

CCPortal

DOI	10.1029/2019MS001787
	Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty
	Tran G.T.; Oschlies A.; Keller D.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19422466
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	climate engineering; Earth system climate model; parameter uncertainty; statistical emulation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Reforestation; Uncertainty analysis; Comparative assessment; Constrained models; Emission scenario; Model outputs; Model uncertainties; Parametric uncertainties; Radiation management; Single parameter; Probability distributions; assessment method; climate change; comparative study; parameter estimation; probability; solar radiation; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156724
作者单位	Marine Biogeochemical Modelling, GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tran G.T.,Oschlies A.,Keller D.P.. Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty[J],2020,12(4).
APA	Tran G.T.,Oschlies A.,&Keller D.P..(2020).Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,12(4).
MLA	Tran G.T.,et al."Comparative Assessment of Climate Engineering Scenarios in the Presence of Parametric Uncertainty".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12.4(2020).