气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations

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DOI	10.1029/2020MS002086
	Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations
	Ramsay H.A.; Singh M.S.; Chavas D.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	19422466
卷号	12 期号:10
英文摘要	There is currently no theory for the rate of tropical cyclone (TC) formation given a particular climate, so our understanding of the relationship between TC frequency and large-scale environmental factors is largely empirical. Here, we explore the sensitivity of TC formation and intensification rates to climate warming in a series of highly idealized cloud-permitting simulations, in which TCs form spontaneously from a base state of rest on an f-plane. The simulations reveal a nonmonotonic relationship between the time taken for a TC precursor disturbance (a “seed”) to form and the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), with moderately long seed emergence times at both ends of the SST range tested (292 and 304 K) and a shorter seed emergence time at the middle value of SST (298 K). Genesis potential indices (GPIs) exhibit a different response to warming: either a monotonic increase if the potential intensity and midtropospheric relative humidity are used or relatively little sensitivity if the saturation deficit is used as the humidity variable. The sensitivity of elapsed time between a TC seed disturbance and TC genesis to surface warming is, however, generally well captured by GPIs, especially those that depend on the saturation deficit. The maximum intensification rate of TCs increases strongly with warming, particularly during the second half of the intensification process. Notably, storms intensify much more rapidly with increasing temperature than is predicted by extant theory based on potential intensity, suggesting that TCs in a warmer climate may intensify even more rapidly than recent studies suggest. ©2020. The Authors.
英文关键词	climate; CRM; genesis; rapid intensification; self-aggregation; tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Hurricanes; Storms; Surface waters; Tropics; Climate warming; Environmental factors; Humidity variables; Increasing temperatures; Saturation deficit; Sea surface temperature (SST); Surface warming; Tropical cyclone; Oceanography; environmental factor; relative humidity; sea surface temperature; simulation; tropical cyclone
来源期刊	Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156622
作者单位	CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramsay H.A.,Singh M.S.,Chavas D.R.. Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations[J],2020,12(10).
APA	Ramsay H.A.,Singh M.S.,&Chavas D.R..(2020).Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations.Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,12(10).
MLA	Ramsay H.A.,et al."Response of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification Rates to Climate Warming in Idealized Simulations".Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12.10(2020).