气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2018.09.027
	Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory
	Keyser A.R.; Westerling A.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	694
结束页码	706
卷号	432
英文摘要	More than 70 years of fire suppression by federal land management agencies has interrupted fire regimes in much of the western United States. The result of missed fire cycles is a buildup of both surface and canopy fuels in many forest ecosystems, increasing the risk of severe fire. The frequency and size of fires has increased in recent decades, as has the area burned with high severity in some ecosystems. A number of studies have examined controls on high severity fire occurrence, but none have yet determined what controls the extent of high severity fire. We developed statistical models predicting high severity area burned for the western United States and three sub-regions—the Northern Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and Southwest. A simple model with maximum temperature the month of fire, annual normalized moisture deficit and location explains area burned in high severity fire in our west-wide model, with the exception of years with especially large areas burned with high severity fire: 1988, 2002. With respect to mitigation or management of high severity fire, understanding what drives extreme fire years is critical. For the sub-regional models, topography, spring temperature and snowpack condition, and vegetation condition class variables improved our prediction of high severity burned area in extreme fire years. Fire year climate is critical to predicting area burned in high severity fire, especially in extreme fire years. These models can be used for scenario analyses and impact assessments to aid management in mitigating negative impacts of high severity fire. © 2018
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Ecosystems; Forecasting; Forestry; Extreme value theory; Federal land management agencies; High severity fires; Maximum temperature; Northern Rocky Mountains; Spring temperatures; Vegetation condition; Western United States; Fires; environmental impact assessment; fire management; forest ecosystem; forest fire; land management; prediction; snowpack; temperature effect; vegetation cover; Area; Ecosystems; Fires; Forecasts; Forestry; Management; Models; United States; California; Rocky Mountains; Sierra Nevada [California]; United States
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156348
作者单位	Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California Merced, Merced, CA 95343, United States; Ernest and Julio Gallo Management Program, University of California Merced, Merced, CA 95343, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keyser A.R.,Westerling A.L.. Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory[J],2019,432.
APA	Keyser A.R.,&Westerling A.L..(2019).Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory.Forest Ecology and Management,432.
MLA	Keyser A.R.,et al."Predicting increasing high severity area burned for three forested regions in the western United States using extreme value theory".Forest Ecology and Management 432(2019).