气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2018.11.042
	How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?
	Vanoni M.; Cailleret M.; Hülsmann L.; Bugmann H.; Bigler C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	606
结束页码	617
卷号	433
英文摘要	Tree mortality is caused by complex interactions between multiple biotic and abiotic factors. Processes of tree mortality that are not induced by natural disturbances are often reflected in distinct radial growth patterns of trees, which typically serve as reliable indicators of impending tree mortality. However, it remains unclear whether empirical mortality models that are based on tree size and growth result in more realistic projections of forest succession in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). We used a combination of tree-ring and inventory data from unmanaged Swiss natural forest reserves to derive species-specific survival models for six Central European tree species (Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Quercus spp.). We jointly used 528 tree-ring samples and inventory data from eight forest reserves. We implemented the estimated parameters of the survival models into the DVM ForClim and performed simulations of forest succession that were validated using the inventory data of the forest reserves. Size- and growth-dependent variables (i.e., diameter at breast height and mean ring width) over the last few years prior to tree death were reliable predictors to distinguish between dying and living trees. Very low mean ring widths over several preceding years as well as small and large trees, respectively, reflected low survival probabilities. However, the small sample sizes of small and large trees resulted in considerable uncertainty of the survival probabilities. The implementation of these survival models in ForClim yielded plausible projections in short-term simulations and for some sites improved the predictions compared to the current ForClim version. Stand basal area, however, tended to be overestimated. Long-term simulations of ForClim based on the empirical survival models resulted in realistic predictions only if the uncertainty of the predicted survival probabilities was considered. We conclude that the combination of different data sources in combination with the consideration of intra-specific trait variability yields robust predictions of tree survival probabilities, thus paving the way towards better tree mortality models and more reliable projections of future forest dynamics. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	ForClim; Forest dynamics; Radial growth; Survival model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Diameter-at-breast heights; Dynamic vegetation model; ForClim; Forest dynamics; Radial growth; Short-term simulation; Survival model; Survival probabilities; Forestry; climate effect; ecological modeling; forest ecosystem; mortality; parameter estimation; prediction; species inventory; stand structure; succession; survival; tree; tree ring; vegetation dynamics; Data; Forecasts; Forestry; Models; Mortality; Rings; Survival; Trees; Switzerland; Abies alba; Fagus sylvatica; Larix decidua; Picea abies; Pinus cembra; Quercus
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156250
作者单位	Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland; Research Unit Forest Resources and Management, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland; Theoretical Ecology, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstraße 31, Regensburg, 93053, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vanoni M.,Cailleret M.,Hülsmann L.,et al. How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?[J],2019,433.
APA	Vanoni M.,Cailleret M.,Hülsmann L.,Bugmann H.,&Bigler C..(2019).How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?.Forest Ecology and Management,433.
MLA	Vanoni M.,et al."How do tree mortality models from combined tree-ring and inventory data affect projections of forest succession?".Forest Ecology and Management 433(2019).