气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.026
	The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona
	Clement M.J.; Harding L.E.; Lucas R.W.; Rubin E.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
起始页码	32
结束页码	41
卷号	441
英文摘要	Poor recruitment in some quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) stands has led to debate over which factors play the largest role in aspen forest persistence. Understanding the relative importance of the many relevant factors over a large landscape could inform management strategies regarding aspen recruitment by focusing efforts on the most important factors. Therefore, between 2011 and 2016 we collected data on 29 biotic and abiotic factors thought to affect aspen recruitment from 92 randomly-selected aspen stands growing along the southwestern limit of its distribution in Arizona, USA. We assessed the condition of selected aspen stands by quantifying the number of recently recruited aspen stems (saplings >2 m tall and <5 cm dbh) in each sampling plot. We used negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between aspen recruitment and the measured covariates. We fit a balanced set of models, calculated AIC weights for those models, and summed the weights of the models containing each covariate as a measure of covariate relative importance. Six covariates had relative importance values that were significantly greater than random: fire severity in 2011, conifer encroachment, rust presence, fire severity in 2015, blight presence, and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index. There were no significant differences in the ranking of these six covariates by relative importance. Although we estimated that cattle and elk had a significant negative impact on aspen recruitment, these factors were relatively unimportant. This seemingly counter-intuitive result arose because many sites lacked ungulates, but still failed to recruit aspen, indicating that other factors were more important for aspen recruitment. Our results indicate that conifer removal and increased fire activity could be among the most effective management tools to help promote aspen recruitment. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Conifers; Drought; Elk; Fire; Generalized linear model; Herbivory; Negative binomial; Populus tremuloides
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Forestry; Regression analysis; Conifers; Generalized linear model; Herbivory; Negative binomial; Populus tremuloides; Fires; abiotic factor; biotic factor; coniferous tree; deciduous tree; drought; evapotranspiration; fire; herbivory; numerical model; recruitment (population dynamics); Drought; Fires; Forestry; Populus Tremuloides; Regression Analysis; Softwoods; Arizona; United States; Bos; Coniferophyta; Populus tremuloides; Ungulata
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/156054
作者单位	Arizona Game and Fish Department, 5000 W. Carefree Hwy, Phoenix, AZ 85086, United States; Southwest Environmental Institute, Phoenix, AZ 85087, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Clement M.J.,Harding L.E.,Lucas R.W.,et al. The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona[J],2019,441.
APA	Clement M.J.,Harding L.E.,Lucas R.W.,&Rubin E.S..(2019).The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona.Forest Ecology and Management,441.
MLA	Clement M.J.,et al."The relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors influencing aspen recruitment in Arizona".Forest Ecology and Management 441(2019).