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DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117469 |
Long-term forest dynamics in response to climate change in northern mixed forests in Japan: A 38-year individual-based approach | |
Hiura T.; Go S.; Iijima H. | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 0378-1127 |
卷号 | 449 |
英文摘要 | Climate change is expected to cause a directional change in northern mixed forests from sub-boreal conifer-dominated to cool-temperate broad-leaved trees dominated forests due to species-specific responses to the changing climate regime. However, few studies have examined both the long-term effects of climate (temperature, precipitation and wind disturbance) and non-climate (stand structure and topography) factors. In this study, we analyzed forest census data from 15 forest plots (17.5 ha, 8460 trees) in two primeval reserve areas over a 38-year period (1979–2016) using individual-based or grid-based state-space models to evaluate the effects of climate and non-climate factors that affect the demographic parameters (growth rate, mortality, and recruitment rate) of the three coniferous and seven deciduous broad-leaved species. Two climate factors during the growth period differentially affected the growth rate of trees: high temperature and high precipitation had negative effects on coniferous species and positive effects on broad-leaved species, respectively. The change of stand basal area and its interaction between precipitation in non-growth period affected the growth rate of some species. Furthermore, the mortality of large conifers was strongly affected by a typhoon in 2004. The dominance of coniferous species has declined especially in plots with west-facing slopes and from snowfall that has largely diminished since 1979. In northern Japan, the temperature and precipitation of the growth period are increasing, and snowfall is decreasing. Our results indicated that this climate change reduced the growth rates of coniferous species and increased those of broad-leaved species. Moreover, wind disturbances will increase, which will accelerate the change in species composition by removing dominant coniferous trees. This study is the first to show these directional changes in the species composition of northern mixed forests from conifer-dominated to broad-leaved tree-dominated based on the long-term tree demography. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. |
英文关键词 | Bayesian state-space model; Competition; Deciduous broad-leaved trees; Evergreen conifers; Growth; Mortality; Snowfall; Wind disturbance |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Climate models; Competition; Forestry; Growth (materials); Population dynamics; Population statistics; Snow; State space methods; Topography; Broadleaved trees; Evergreen conifers; Mortality; State - space models; Wind disturbance; Climate change; basal area; climate change; community composition; competition (ecology); coniferous tree; deciduous forest; deciduous tree; ecological modeling; forest dynamics; growth rate; high temperature; mixed forest; mortality; precipitation (climatology); typhoon; wind; Competition; Forestry; Forests; Growth Rate; Mortality; Precipitation; Snow; Topography; Coniferales; Coniferophyta |
来源期刊 | Forest Ecology and Management |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155814 |
作者单位 | Forest Research Station, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0809, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan; Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, 305-8687, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hiura T.,Go S.,Iijima H.. Long-term forest dynamics in response to climate change in northern mixed forests in Japan: A 38-year individual-based approach[J],2019,449. |
APA | Hiura T.,Go S.,&Iijima H..(2019).Long-term forest dynamics in response to climate change in northern mixed forests in Japan: A 38-year individual-based approach.Forest Ecology and Management,449. |
MLA | Hiura T.,et al."Long-term forest dynamics in response to climate change in northern mixed forests in Japan: A 38-year individual-based approach".Forest Ecology and Management 449(2019). |
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