气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling and mapping beech forest distribution and site productivity under different climate change scenarios in the Cantabrian Range (North-western Spain)

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117488
	Modelling and mapping beech forest distribution and site productivity under different climate change scenarios in the Cantabrian Range (North-western Spain)
	Castaño-Santamaría J.; López-Sánchez C.A.; Ramón Obeso J.; Barrio-Anta M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	450
英文摘要	The beech forests in the Cantabrian Range occur at the southwestern limit of the distribution of the species and are very important for wildlife and biodiversity in the region. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought events over the next few decades in southwestern Europe, and establishing how this will alter the distribution, abundance and productivity of beech is fundamental for biodiversity conservation and management. In this study, we used spatially continuous environmental variables to develop spatial distribution and site-productivity models for beech forests in the Cantabrian Range and to project these models to different climate change scenarios. Two raster-based models of resolution 250 m were constructed to identify suitable habitat (species distribution model) and to estimate site index (productivity model) for beech in the Cantabrian Range. Of the 23 variables retained in the spatial distribution model, climate, soil and terrain were the most important (explaining respectively 51.2%, 34.2% and 10.1% of the variation). The productivity model retained only three variables (percentage of silt in soil, mean diurnal range of temperature and plan curvature of the terrain) but was able to explain 54% of the total variation. Future projections based on two emission scenarios suggest that suitable habitat will be drastically reduced by 2070 (loss of 40–90% of the area for the moderate and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). However, the projections do not imply current population removal rather it can be probably interpreted in less favorable conditions for seedling establishment, higher mortality rates and a reduction in local density of populations. Productivity projections for suitable habitat suggest a large increase in the average site index (from current 15.19 to 18.18 m) in the moderate scenario and an increase of only 34 cm in the pessimistic scenario. The study findings provide basic information for conservation biology and could be used by decision-makers to develop and implement actions for mitigating the impact of climate change on beech forests. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Climate change; Fagus sylvatica L.; Modelling; Random Forest; Site index; Spatially-continuous environmental variables; Suitable habitat
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Climate models; Conservation; Decision making; Decision trees; Ecosystems; Forestry; Models; Population distribution; Productivity; Environmental variables; Fagus sylvatica L; Random forests; Site index; Suitable habitat; Climate change; abundance estimation; biodiversity; climate change; climate effect; conservation planning; deciduous forest; environmental modeling; habitat structure; mortality; scenario analysis; spatial analysis; Biodiversity; Conservation; Decision Making; Ecosystems; Forestry; Models; Cantabrian Mountains; Spain; Spain; Fagus; Fagus sylvatica
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155790
作者单位	GIS-Forest Research Group, BOS Department, Oviedo University, Mieres, Spain; UMIB-Research Unit of Biodiversity (UO, CSIC, PA), Oviedo University, Mieres, Spain; Directorate General for Cadastre, Ministry of Finance, Regional Office of Asturias, Oviedo, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Castaño-Santamaría J.,López-Sánchez C.A.,Ramón Obeso J.,et al. Modelling and mapping beech forest distribution and site productivity under different climate change scenarios in the Cantabrian Range (North-western Spain)[J],2019,450.
APA	Castaño-Santamaría J.,López-Sánchez C.A.,Ramón Obeso J.,&Barrio-Anta M..(2019).Modelling and mapping beech forest distribution and site productivity under different climate change scenarios in the Cantabrian Range (North-western Spain).Forest Ecology and Management,450.
MLA	Castaño-Santamaría J.,et al."Modelling and mapping beech forest distribution and site productivity under different climate change scenarios in the Cantabrian Range (North-western Spain)".Forest Ecology and Management 450(2019).