气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117490
	Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning
	Beverly J.L.; McLoughlin N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	451
英文摘要	Burn probability maps produced by Monte Carlo methods involve repeated simulations of fire ignition and spread across a study area landscape to identify locations that burn more frequently than others. These maps have achieved broad acceptance for research investigations and strategic fire management planning. In this study, we investigated correspondence between burn probability heat maps and burned areas observed in subsequent years for five study areas in Alberta, Canada. Observations of burned areas included 138 fires that collectively burned 543 049 ha. Distributions of burn probability values within burned areas were not heavily skewed towards the high-end of the range; however, median burn probability was significantly lower in unburned areas compared with burned areas for three of five study areas. Accuracy of burn probability maps was dependent on map design choices and subjective performance thresholds. When continuous burn probability values were mapped with a stretched symbology, most observed burned areas (>70%) were located in areas within the lower-half of the burn probability range where fires were considered the least likely. In contrast, when burn probabilities were mapped and evaluated with a 50th percentile performance threshold, most observed burned areas (75–80%) occurred in half of the study area where burn probability values exceeded the median. Map accuracy declined linearly as this performance threshold was increased from 50th to 90th percentile. Choice of classification method for mapping burn probabilities altered the appearance of the map and corresponding map accuracy. Compared with Jenks natural breaks, equal intervals, or defined intervals, a quantile classification was the only method that resulted in burned areas falling preferentially in locations mapped in the highest burn probability classes. © 2019
英文关键词	Burn probability; Burn-P3; Hazard; Landscape simulation; Risk; Wildfire
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Fires; Hazards; Maps; Monte Carlo methods; Risk assessment; Risks; Alberta , Canada; Burn probabilities; Burn-P3; Classification methods; Landscape simulation; Quantile classifications; Subjective performance; Wildfire; Probability distributions; fire management; hazard assessment; landscape; risk assessment; simulation; strategic approach; wildfire; Accuracy; Classification; Fires; Hazards; Maps; Performance; Probability; Risk Assessment; Alberta; Canada
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155774
作者单位	Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada; Forestry Division, Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, 9th Floor, 9920 – 108 Street, Edmonton, Alberta T5K 2M4, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Beverly J.L.,McLoughlin N.. Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning[J],2019,451.
APA	Beverly J.L.,&McLoughlin N..(2019).Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning.Forest Ecology and Management,451.
MLA	Beverly J.L.,et al."Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning".Forest Ecology and Management 451(2019).