气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing the predictions of gap model with vegetation and disturbance data in south-eastern Canadian mixed forests

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117649
	Comparing the predictions of gap model with vegetation and disturbance data in south-eastern Canadian mixed forests
	Elzein T.; Larocque G.R.; Sirois L.; Arseneault D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	455
英文摘要	The lack of long term independent historical data constitute a major impediment to the further improvement and validation of forest simulation models. In this study, we evaluate the degree to which the gap model ZELIG-CFS realistically predicts the long term stand development of mixed forests in southeastern Quebec when disturbance history is considered. An early 1930 forest inventory and disturbance data were used to evaluate model simulation performance over the 1930–2013 period. ZELIG-CFS well predicted the basal area of balsam fir in simulations with and without disturbances. When disturbances were simulated, the predictions for white spruce and white birch were more realistic than in the simulation without disturbances. At the same time, deciduous species that contributed the most to the compositional changes observed during the 20th century in mixed forests (red maple, sugar maple, and trembling aspen) were systematically underestimated by the model. Several improvement avenues are suggested: (1) A better integration of regeneration strategies of tree species, especially the integration of a probability of vegetative reproduction for sprouting species like red maple, sugar maple, trembling aspen and northern white cedar, (2) Coupling gap models with a stand risk model to better simulate natural and human disturbance probability as a source of exogenous mortality. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cell proliferation; Risk assessment; Compositional changes; Deciduous species; Disturbance history; Forest simulation; Human disturbances; Northern white cedar; Regeneration strategies; Stand development; Reforestation; anthropogenic effect; basal area; coniferous tree; disturbance; ecological modeling; forest inventory; mixed forest; model validation; mortality; vegetative reproduction; Acer Saccharum; Data; Forests; Reforestation; Risk Assessment; Simulation; Thuja Occidentalis; Canada; Quebec [Canada]; Abies balsamea; Acer rubrum; Acer saccharum; Betula pendula; Picea glauca; Thuja occidentalis
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155672
作者单位	Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des UrsulinesQC G5L 3A1, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Ste-Foy, Quebec, QC G1V 4C7, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elzein T.,Larocque G.R.,Sirois L.,et al. Comparing the predictions of gap model with vegetation and disturbance data in south-eastern Canadian mixed forests[J],2020,455.
APA	Elzein T.,Larocque G.R.,Sirois L.,&Arseneault D..(2020).Comparing the predictions of gap model with vegetation and disturbance data in south-eastern Canadian mixed forests.Forest Ecology and Management,455.
MLA	Elzein T.,et al."Comparing the predictions of gap model with vegetation and disturbance data in south-eastern Canadian mixed forests".Forest Ecology and Management 455(2020).