气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of factors associated with the amount of forest road reconstruction activity in Turkey: Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117800
	Analysis of factors associated with the amount of forest road reconstruction activity in Turkey: Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach
	Akay A.O.; Akgul M.; Demir M.; Acar H.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	458
英文摘要	Forest roads are one of the most essential structures for the continuity of timber harvesting operations. To ensure continuity, forest roads must be open and stable during all seasons. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationships between the amount of forest road reconstruction (FRR) and the factors associated with it. These include average precipitation (AP) amount, timber harvesting (ındustrial wood) (TH) amount and forest road repair and maintenance (FRREM) amount. Also, study aims to test appropriate statistic models for forest road planning and management. In this study, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which is a time series analysis method, is used. Results from the ARDL model demonstrate that an increase in the amount of TH and AP in the long-run relationship negatively affected FRR amounts. In the short-run relationship, the TH and AP variables negatively affected the FRR variable, whereas the FRREM variable positively affected the FRR variable. Granger causality test results show that in the short run there was a one-way causality from FRREM to FRR. Also, for the Granger causality test in the long run, there was causality from other variables to FRREM. This demonstrates that timber harvesting amounts and changes in precipitation amounts due to climate change should be considered when determining road reconstruction activities. In addition, this work will enable forest road managers to make effective and accurate FRR budget planning decisions. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Forest road; Road maintenance; Timber harvesting; Time series analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Climate change; Harmonic analysis; Harvesting; Logging (forestry); Repair; Roads and streets; Statistical tests; Timber; Time series analysis; Budget-planning; Forest roads; Granger causality test; Repair and maintenance; Road maintenance; Road reconstruction; Timber harvesting; Timber harvesting operations; Highway planning; Granger causality test; maintenance; reconstruction; repair; road construction; timber harvesting; time series analysis; Cost Control; Harvesting; Maintenance; Roads; Statistical Analysis; Time Series Analysis; Turkey
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155563
作者单位	Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Construction and Transportation, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Bahcekoy, Sariyer, Istanbul, 34473, Turkey; Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Occupational Health and Safety, Istanbul Yeni Yuzyıl University, Zeytinburnu, Istanbul, 34010, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Akay A.O.,Akgul M.,Demir M.,et al. Analysis of factors associated with the amount of forest road reconstruction activity in Turkey: Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach[J],2020,458.
APA	Akay A.O.,Akgul M.,Demir M.,&Acar H.H..(2020).Analysis of factors associated with the amount of forest road reconstruction activity in Turkey: Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach.Forest Ecology and Management,458.
MLA	Akay A.O.,et al."Analysis of factors associated with the amount of forest road reconstruction activity in Turkey: Autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach".Forest Ecology and Management 458(2020).