气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117652
	The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species
	Brandl S.; Paul C.; Knoke T.; Falk W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	458
英文摘要	Due to climate change for many regions an increase in tree mortality is expected. Considering changes in mortality risk is important for management decisions. Therefore, models are needed that predict mortality risk under future climate. We fitted survival models for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Silver Fir (Abies alba Mill.), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl.), and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) based on the German crown condition survey as well as pan-European crown condition data from Level I and Level II plots, thus encompassing large environmental gradients. We used parametric accelerated failure time models assuming Weibull- or log-normal distribution of survival times. The models allow to estimate survival probability in dependence on age, climate and species mixture. For all species, a decrease in survival probability with increasing temperatures was found. Decreasing precipitation increased mortality risk for Norway spruce, Scots pine and Douglas fir. In addition, for Norway spruce and Douglas fir a positive effect of species admixture on survival was found. In summary, we could fit parsimonious parametric survival models explaining differences in survival times by 30-year climate averages that we interpret as predisposing factors that increase a tree's vulnerability. However, uncertainty in estimations remains high due to limitations of the sampling design and the methodology. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Accelerated failure time models; Climate change; Survival analysis; Tree mortality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Forestry; Normal distribution; Plants (botany); Weibull distribution; Accelerated failure time models; European beech (fagus sylvatica l.); Increasing temperatures; Log-normal distribution; Picea Abies (L.) Karst; Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.); Survival analysis; Tree mortality; Climate change; ecological modeling; environmental gradient; mortality risk; precipitation (chemistry); precipitation (climatology); survival; tree; Forestry; Models; Mortality; Probability; Pseudotsuga; Statistical Distribution; Survival; Germany; Abies; Abies alba; Fagus sylvatica; Picea abies; Pinus sylvestris; Pseudotsuga; Pseudotsuga menziesii; Quercus petraea; Quercus robur
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155561
作者单位	Bavarian State Institute of Forestry, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 1, Freising, 85354, Germany; Technische Universität München, Institute of Forest Management, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, Freising, 85354, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brandl S.,Paul C.,Knoke T.,et al. The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species[J],2020,458.
APA	Brandl S.,Paul C.,Knoke T.,&Falk W..(2020).The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species.Forest Ecology and Management,458.
MLA	Brandl S.,et al."The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species".Forest Ecology and Management 458(2020).