气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118005
	Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems
	Kretchun A.M.; Scheller R.M.; Shinneman D.J.; Soderquist B.; Maguire K.; Link T.E.; Strand E.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	462
英文摘要	Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moisture recharge that sustain aspen groves. Aspen groves are important locations of biodiversity within these landscapes. There is growing concern that reduced snowpack due to climate change may reduce the long-term persistence and productivity of aspen communities in these regions. In this study, we evaluated the potential for climate change and drought to reduce or eliminate isolated aspen communities in southwestern Idaho. We used a landscape simulation model integrated with inputs from an empirically derived biogeochemical model of growth, and a species distribution model of regeneration to forecast how changes in climate, declining snowpack, and competition with a conifer species is likely to affect aspen occupancy over the next 85-years. We found that simulated reductions in snowpack depth (and associated increases in climatic water deficit) caused a reduction in aspen persistence; aspen occupancy was reduced under all high emissions climate scenarios. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) occupancy also declined under all future climates. Aspen regeneration declined over the course of all simulations, with an ensemble ratio of mortality/establishment increasing over the course of both low and high emissions climate scenarios. Climate-induced mortality of aspen clones increased in frequency under all climate scenarios and, under the most severe emissions scenarios, contributed to a substantial decline of aspen cover. Our research suggests that snowbanks will become an important determinant of long-term persistence of aspen under changing climate in the region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Drought; Quaking aspen; Regeneration; Snowdrift zones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Climate models; Drought; Reforestation; Soil moisture; Biogeochemical modeling; Landscape simulation; Pseudotsuga menziesii; Quaking aspens; Regeneration; Simulated reduction; Species distribution modeling; Western United States; Climate change; biodiversity; climate change; coniferous tree; drought; growing season; landscape ecology; mortality; persistence; snowpack; soil moisture; Biodiversity; Clones; Drought; Ecosystems; Mortality; Populus; Pseudotsuga Menziesii; Reforestation; Idaho; United States; Coniferophyta; Populus tremuloides; Pseudotsuga; Pseudotsuga menziesii
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155382
作者单位	Quantum Spatial, 421 SW 6th Ave #800, Portland, OR 97204, United States; North Carolina State University, Dept. Forestry Env. Resources, Campus Box 7106, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 970 Lusk St., Boise, ID 83706, United States; United States Forest Service, Office of Sustainability and Climate, 240 West Prospect Road, Fort Collins, CO 80521, United States; University of Idaho, Dept of Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Science, 875 Perimeter Dr., MS 1133, Moscow, ID 83844, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kretchun A.M.,Scheller R.M.,Shinneman D.J.,et al. Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems[J],2020,462.
APA	Kretchun A.M..,Scheller R.M..,Shinneman D.J..,Soderquist B..,Maguire K..,...&Strand E.K..(2020).Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems.Forest Ecology and Management,462.
MLA	Kretchun A.M.,et al."Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems".Forest Ecology and Management 462(2020).