气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Developing a point process model for ecological risk assessment of pine wilt disease at multiple scales

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118010
	Developing a point process model for ecological risk assessment of pine wilt disease at multiple scales
	Matsuhashi S.; Hirata A.; Akiba M.; Nakamura K.; Oguro M.; Takano K.T.; Nakao K.; Hijioka Y.; Matsui T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	463
英文摘要	Pine wilt disease (PWD) is one of the most serious conifer diseases, with further expansion expected under ongoing climate change. Sustainable forest management and effective pest control of pine forests therefore requires rigorous exploration of potential PWD risk areas under current and future climate conditions. To predict potential PWD risk areas in Japan, we constructed an inhomogeneous Poisson point process (IPP) model, which allows the use of strongly biased data. We examined both current and near-future climatic conditions (2026–2050, five general circulation model under two representative concentration pathways [RCPs]). Occurrence data were obtained on three different spatial scales (national, regional and local) along with eight bioclimatic variables. The resultant model was able to correct the data bias caused by using these three different data sources and showed high predictive power as follows: (1) potential risk areas will increase more than the current PWD distribution; (2) mean annual temperature will have the highest effect of the eight predictor variables; (3) high-risk areas will expand northwards and/or upwards in the near future, at a maximum of ca. +58.6% under RCP 8.5 and a minimum of ca. +15.9% under RCP 2.6 and low risk areas will decrease. The high-resolution PWD risk maps created with the IPP model will therefore aid future pest control and forest management strategies at local, regional, and national scales. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Biological invasions; Down-weighted Poisson regression (DWPR); Forest pathology; Risk map; Species distribution models (SDM)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Compensation (personnel); Forestry; Maps; Pest control; Poisson distribution; Biological invasion; Ecological risk assessment; General circulation model; Mean annual temperatures; Poisson regression; Risk maps; Species distribution models; Sustainable forest management; Risk assessment; biological invasion; coniferous tree; disease incidence; environmental risk; forest management; pathology; spatial distribution; wilt; Data; Forestry; Maps; Pest Control; Pinus; Processes; Risk Assessment; Sustainable Forest Management; Japan; Coniferophyta
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155359
作者单位	National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Tsukuba, Japan; Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Morioka, Japan; Nagano Environmental Conservation Research Institute, Nagano, Japan; Kansai Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Kyoto, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Matsuhashi S.,Hirata A.,Akiba M.,et al. Developing a point process model for ecological risk assessment of pine wilt disease at multiple scales[J],2020,463.
APA	Matsuhashi S..,Hirata A..,Akiba M..,Nakamura K..,Oguro M..,...&Matsui T..(2020).Developing a point process model for ecological risk assessment of pine wilt disease at multiple scales.Forest Ecology and Management,463.
MLA	Matsuhashi S.,et al."Developing a point process model for ecological risk assessment of pine wilt disease at multiple scales".Forest Ecology and Management 463(2020).