气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118365
	Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil
	Elli E.F.; Sentelhas P.C.; Bender F.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	474
英文摘要	Eucalyptus is the world's most planted hardwood tree. Concerns about potential impacts and uncertainties of climate change on Eucalyptus plantations productivity are arising and studies about that are still scarce. This study assesses the effects of climate change on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across a geographic gradient in Brazil by mid- and end-century and quantifies the uncertainty of climate and productivity projections. Ten global circulation models (GCM) under intermediate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, for the 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods were used for future climate projections. The APSIM Next Generation Eucalyptus model was used to simulate the Eucalyptus mean annual increment (MAI, m3 ha−1 yr−1) at seven years for eight locations in Brazil. The response of Eucalyptus productivity is expected to be site-specific and will mostly depend on the balance between the possible negative effects of increasing temperatures and the potential productivity increments caused by higher CO2 concentration. Plantations located in South and Southeast Brazil are expected to experience increases in MAI, while those located in Center-North Brazil will experience more pronounced MAI reductions. Uncertainties in projections are higher under RCP8.5 and for the end-of-century, especially for annual rainfall and MAI. Future climate projections from GCMs coupled with a Eucalyptus simulation model provide valuable information to facilitate the exploration of potential strategies and guidance of policy decision-making for forestry adaptation to climate change on a regional or national scale. However, forest companies and foresters should be cautious when using projected information for local-scale adaptation options, as the uncertainties in climate (especially in rainfall) and productivity projections are substantially large. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	APSIM Eucalyptus model; Climate change uncertainties; Eucalyptus productivity; Global circulation models; Temperature stresses
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Decision making; Forestry; Greenhouse gases; Petroleum prospecting; Productivity; Rain; Adaptation to climate changes; Climate change projections; Eucalyptus plantations; Future climate projections; Global circulation model; Increasing temperatures; Mean annual increments; Potential productivity; Climate change; agrometeorology; carbon emission; climate change; climate effect; environmental gradient; greenhouse gas; plantation forestry; precipitation assessment; rainfall; temperature effect; Brazil; Decision Making; Eucalyptus; Forestry; Greenhouse Gases; Plantations; Productivity; Rain; Brazil; Eucalyptus
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155090
作者单位	Department of Biosystems Engineering, “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture (ESALQ), University of São Paulo (USP), Piracicaba, SP, Brazil; National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elli E.F.,Sentelhas P.C.,Bender F.D.. Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil[J],2020,474.
APA	Elli E.F.,Sentelhas P.C.,&Bender F.D..(2020).Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil.Forest Ecology and Management,474.
MLA	Elli E.F.,et al."Impacts and uncertainties of climate change projections on Eucalyptus plantations productivity across Brazil".Forest Ecology and Management 474(2020).