气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118381
	Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China
	Xiong Q.; Luo X.; Liang P.; Xiao Y.; Xiao Q.; Sun H.; Pan K.; Wang L.; Li L.; Pang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	474
英文摘要	Forest fire is a recurrent and serious problem which stirs major environmental, economic, and social concerns. Information on the temporal–spatial distribution of ignition probability and identifying the factors that drive the pattern of forest fire occurrences are the most challenging issues over the world. In this study, the spatial distribution and temporal variation in forest fire occurrence were examined by applying the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Redundancy analyses were used to determine the contributions of driving factors (forest fire policy, human interventions, and biophysical variables) to the forest fire occurrences. In addition, the strength of the relationship between the forest fire policy, human interventions, and biophysical variables and their direct and indirect effects on forest fire occurrences were determined using structural equation models (SEMs). Our results showed the Maxent model was suitable for predictive modeling of the distribution of forest fire occurrences in southwestern China. The predicted area of forest fire occurrences in southwestern China during 2000–2017 was 3.25 × 105 km2 which mostly concentrated in the southern region. There was an increasing trend of forest fire crossing national and provincial borders. According to the temporal pattern of forest fire occurrences, additional ignition probability areas including the central Yunnan and the eastern Sichuan were found in spring when compared to those in winter. Moreover, forest fire policy is the main driver underlying the ignition, followed by biophysical factors and human interventions. These should be considered as key elements in the design of forest fire prevention programmes. Although the explanatory power of driving factors varied, national border distance (NBD) and conductive index (CI) that represented effects of forest fire policy were constantly the key driving variables. In addition, there is heterogeneity among the biophysical factors. The meteorological factors significantly affected on ignition probability in different temporal scale, while the effects of topographic factors were smaller. Human interventions had no significant direct effect on ignition probability, while they via fire policy had a significant positive indirect effect on the probability of fire occurrence. The results suggest that we should strengthen the administrative capacities to prevent forest fires, and improve the fire prevention publicity and education on the residents living near the national border and/or in low population density areas to get higher awareness and compliance of forest fire policies for local residents. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Border effect; Conductive index; Ignition probability; Meteorological factors; Temporal scale
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biophysics; Deforestation; Fire hazards; Fireproofing; Population statistics; Probability distributions; Spatial distribution; Bio-physical variables; Forest fire prevention; Ignition probability; Meteorological factors; Population densities; Predictive modeling; Redundancy analysis; Structural equation models; Fires; anthropogenic effect; fire management; forest fire; heterogeneity; meteorology; spatial distribution; spatiotemporal analysis; temporal variation; China; Deforestation; Distribution; Driving; Fire Prevention; Fires; Ignition; Probability; China; Sichuan; Yunnan
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155087
作者单位	CAS Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization & Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China; Center for Chinese Public Administration Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, United States; Chongqing College of Arts and Sciences, Chongqing, 402160, China; Department of Environmental Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China; Long-term Research Station of Alpine Forest Ecosystem, Provincial Key Laboratory of Ecological Forestry Engineering, Institute of Ecology and Forestry, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China; Research Group Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Wilrijk, 2610, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiong Q.,Luo X.,Liang P.,等. Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China[J],2020,474.
APA	Xiong Q..,Luo X..,Liang P..,Xiao Y..,Xiao Q..,...&Pang X..(2020).Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China.Forest Ecology and Management,474.
MLA	Xiong Q.,et al."Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China".Forest Ecology and Management 474(2020).