气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought drives the pine caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.) outbreaks and their prediction under different RCPs scenarios: A case study of Shandong Province, China

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118446
	Drought drives the pine caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.) outbreaks and their prediction under different RCPs scenarios: A case study of Shandong Province, China
	Bao Y.; Na L.; Han A.; Guna A.; Wang F.; Liu X.; Zhang J.; Wang C.; Tong S.; Bao Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	475
英文摘要	Drought is an important driver of forest pests, and reports of climate change are becoming more conspicuous as a result of enhanced drought. These projected changes have a positive impact on forest insect pests that result in substantial forest damage, adverse economic impacts, and losses of ecosystem resources. Therefore, we explored the impact of drought on the outbreak of pine caterpillars and predicted the future trend of pine caterpillar outbreaks under different emission scenarios by constructing a drought-pine caterpillar model (using a greenhouse gas emission scenario: Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2016 to 2099). The results showed that: (1) Long-term or prolonged drought had a greater positive impact on pine caterpillar outbreaks than short-term drought; (2) The drought was more severe in the RCP 8.5 scenario than that in RCP 4.5; (3) The outbreaks of pine caterpillars in Shandong Province will gradually decrease approaching 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. There is a trend of cyclical changes of approximately 30 years under the RCP4.5 scenario, while these changes primarily occurred before the 2050s and then decreased significantly and even became almost zero in the 2090s. (4) Under the two scenarios, light infestations comprised the largest area, followed by moderate and severe. Our study is important to promote the understanding of climate change and provide references and direction for forest managers. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Drought; Latitudinal; Pine caterpillars; PLSR; Prediction; RCPs
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Drought; Forestry; Greenhouse gases; Economic impacts; Emission scenario; Forest damage; Forest insects; Forest managers; Forest pest; Future trends; Shandong province; Climate change; caterpillar; climate effect; drought; economic impact; greenhouse gas; pest damage; pest species; population outbreak; prediction; scenario analysis; Damage; Drought; Emission; Forestry; Greenhouse Gases; Impact; Pests; Pinus; China; Shandong; Dendrolimus; Hexapoda
来源期刊	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/155028
作者单位	School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China; Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun, 130024, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Changchun, 130024, China; Shandong Forestry Research Academy, Jinan, 250014, China; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China; Collage of Geography, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot, 010022, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bao Y.,Na L.,Han A.,et al. Drought drives the pine caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.) outbreaks and their prediction under different RCPs scenarios: A case study of Shandong Province, China[J],2020,475.
APA	Bao Y..,Na L..,Han A..,Guna A..,Wang F..,...&Bao Y..(2020).Drought drives the pine caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.) outbreaks and their prediction under different RCPs scenarios: A case study of Shandong Province, China.Forest Ecology and Management,475.
MLA	Bao Y.,et al."Drought drives the pine caterpillars (Dendrolimus spp.) outbreaks and their prediction under different RCPs scenarios: A case study of Shandong Province, China".Forest Ecology and Management 475(2020).