气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4b41
	Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes
	Lyon B.; Barnston A.G.; Coffel E.; Horton R.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	The frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves are all expected to increase as the climate warms in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The focus of this study is on another dimension of heat waves, their spatial extent, something that has not been studied systematically by researchers but has important implications for associated impacts. Of particular interest are spatially contiguous heat wave regions, examined here over the conterminous US for the May-September season in both the current climate and climate model projections from the CMIP5 archive (11 models total) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios. Given their myriad impacts, heat waves are defined using multiple temperature variables, one which includes atmospheric moisture. In addition to their spatial extent, several other physical attributes are computed across contiguous heat wave regions, including a proxy for energy use. An estimate of the human population exposed to current and future heat waves is also evaluated. We find that historical climate model simulations, in aggregate, show good fidelity in capturing key characteristics of heat waves in the current climate while projections show a substantial increase in spatial extent and other attributes by mid-century under both scenarios, though generally less for RCP4.5, as expected. Overall, the study presents a framework for examining the behavior, and associated impacts, of a frequently overlooked aspect of heat waves. The projected increases in the spatial extent and other attributes of heat waves reported here provides a new perspective on some of the potential consequences of the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; climate extremes; climate projections; heat waves
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Atmospheric greenhouse; Atmospheric moisture; Climate extremes; Climate model simulations; Climate projection; Heat waves; Key characteristics; Temperature variables; Climate models; climate modeling; CMIP; extreme event; future prospect; global warming; greenhouse gas; heat wave; high temperature; radiative forcing; seasonality; summer; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154787
作者单位	Climate Change Institute, School of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, United States; Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Neukom Institute, Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lyon B.,Barnston A.G.,Coffel E.,et al. Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Lyon B.,Barnston A.G.,Coffel E.,&Horton R.M..(2019).Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Lyon B.,et al."Projected increase in the spatial extent of contiguous US summer heat waves and associated attributes".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).