气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4b71
	Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050
	Huang K.; Li X.; Liu X.; Seto K.C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	Urban populations are expected to increase by 2-3 billion by 2050, but we have limited understanding of how future global urban expansion will affect urban heat island (UHI) and hence change the geographic distributions of extreme heat risks. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic global projections of UHI intensification due to urban land expansion through 2050. Our projections show that urban land areas are expected to expand by 0.6-1.3 million km2 between 2015 and 2050, an increase of 78%-171% over the urban footprint in 2015. This urban land expansion will result in average summer daytime and nighttime warming in air temperature of 0.5 °C-0.7 °C, up to ∼3 °C in some locations. This warming is on average about half, and sometimes up to two times, as strong as that caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (multi-model ensemble average projections in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5). This extra urban expansion-induced warming, presented here, will increase extreme heat risks for about half of the future urban population, primarily in the tropical Global South, where existing forecasts already indicate stronger GHG emissions-warming and lack of adaptive capacity. In these vulnerable urban areas, policy interventions to restrict or redistribute urban expansion and planning strategies to mitigate UHIs are needed to reduce the wide ranges of impacts on human health, energy system, urban ecosystem, and infrastructures. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	land change science; sustainability; urban climate; urbanization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Expansion; Gas emissions; Geographical distribution; Greenhouse gases; Landforms; Sustainable development; Urban growth; Global projection; Land changes; Multi-model ensemble; Planning strategies; Policy intervention; Spatially explicit; Urban climates; urbanization; Atmospheric temperature; air temperature; greenhouse gas; heat island; sustainability; urban climate; urbanization
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154783
作者单位	Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, United States; School of Geographic Sciences, Key Lab. of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China; Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang K.,Li X.,Liu X.,et al. Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Huang K.,Li X.,Liu X.,&Seto K.C..(2019).Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Huang K.,et al."Projecting global urban land expansion and heat island intensification through 2050".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).