气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab422b
	Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields
	Partridge T.F.; Winter J.M.; Liu L.; Kendall A.D.; Basso B.; Hyndman D.W.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	The Corn Belt of the United States, one of the most agriculturally productive regions in the world, experienced a globally anomalous decrease in annual temperatures and a concurrent increase in precipitation during the mid- to late-20th century. Here, we quantify the impact of this 'warming hole' on maize yields by developing alternative, no warming hole, climate scenarios that are used to drive both statistical and process-based crop models. We show that the warming hole increased maize yields by 5%-10% per year, with lower temperatures responsible for 62% of the simulated yield increase and greater precipitation responsible for the rest. The observed cooling and wetting associated with the warming hole produced increased yields through two complementary mechanisms: slower crop development which resulted in prolonged time to maturity, and lower drought stress. Our results underscore the relative lack of climate change impacts on central US maize production to date, and the potential compounded challenge that a collapse of the warming hole and climate change would create for farmers across the Corn Belt. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; climate impacts; machine learning; warming hole
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate change; Crops; Learning systems; Annual temperatures; Climate change impact; Climate impacts; Climate scenarios; Complementary mechanisms; Lower temperatures; Maize production; warming hole; Climate models; climate change; climate effect; crop production; crop yield; drought stress; machine learning; twentieth century; wetting; Corn Belt; United States; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154769
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Partridge T.F.,Winter J.M.,Liu L.,et al. Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Partridge T.F.,Winter J.M.,Liu L.,Kendall A.D.,Basso B.,&Hyndman D.W..(2019).Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Partridge T.F.,et al."Mid-20th century warming hole boosts US maize yields".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).